Whey protein has far outpaced the rest of the protein category thanks to its excellent amino acid profile as well as its digestibility and taste and texture benefits leading to the unprecedented surge in whey pricing the industry experiences today.
Indeed, commodity intelligence platform Vesper Tool revealed that whey protein concentrate containing at least 80% protein by weight now costs $32,000 per metric tonne ($14.50/lb), up from $5,500 per tonne ($2.49/lb) during the same period in 2023.
Supply and demand
Giving NutraIngredients a sneak peek of the insights he will share the Sports & Active Nutrition Summit in London this November, Alan Johnstone, owner of Nutrilution UK Ltd, said protein pricing is a story of two halves - supply and demand.
On the demand side, Johnstone said the category has gained a huge boost from the growth in traditional sports and active nutrition. The European market is growing at a compound annual growth rate of between 7% and 9.6% (Grand View Research 2026-2033) with protein products commanding roughly 83% of the sector (Mordor Intelligence European sports nutrition market analysis 2026-2031).
Add to this the heightened demand for protein from GLP-1 users looking to support their muscle mass, and “the mainstreaming of protein” seeing its addition in everything from milkshakes to take away pizza, there is a runaway demand that is only gaining speed.
On the supply side, Johnstone explained whey protein has structural supply restrictions other proteins don’t, as processing capacity has expanded by around 4% per year while the raw whey stream from cheese making has only grown about 1.5%.
Promising alternatives
Naturally, the trend is impacting all categories of protein as manufacturers look for alternatives, but Johnstone noted the best option depends on the purpose and the requirements of the formulation.
There will always be some products for which it will be difficult to move away from whey, namely those promising ultimate nutrition scores, or those focused on taste and texture such as the increasingly popular clear whey drinks.
“Products aimed at specific muscular requirements or more educated consumers will struggle to move away from whey without losing share,” Johnstone said. “This isn’t necessarily fair; it’s possible to get great nutrition from other sources, but as an industry we’ve spent 20 years telling consumers that whey is the best so it’s hard to move away from now.”
However, if the purpose is purely to make a headline protein claim while optimizing costs then “plant proteins are getting better and better every year”, he said.
In terms of functionality, he argued collagen is easy to work with but not nutritionally comparable to complete proteins.
Whereas precision fermented whey proteins are “perfect” in terms of utility, according to Johnstone. But the industry is yet to discover how commercially viable these will be at scale.
“I’m excited by some of the fermented proteins coming through at the moment,” he said. “I’ve been doing a lot of business in India recently and there is a big trend for fermented yeast protein there. The nutritional profile is excellent, the functionality is good and the taste is better than you’d expect for plant proteins.”
What does the future hold?
While most manufacturers are getting better at choosing the right protein for the purpose and only using whey where it is most valuable, making this decision relies on in-depth knowledge of the options available and significant product development expertise, Johnstone said.
“My advice is to lean on your suppliers; most have excellent applications teams now,” Johnstone said. “And avoid swapping one problem for another; so look into the supply chain for all your protein sources before you approve them. It’s no use swapping out whey protein for some mystery blend with only one supplier.”
Looking to the future, Johnstone predicted a reduction in volatility as supply chains catch up with the rush for new product launches.
“Protein demand isn’t going away and whey supply can’t keep up,” he said. “Looking forward, I would expect protein to become a tiered category: whey at the premium top, then clear price distinctions between milk, collagen, plant, wheat etc as brands work out what consumers will actually pay for.”
Johnstone will present on the topic of protein pricing, giving his insights on business strategies during NutraIngredients’ Sports & Active Nutrition Summit, taking place in London on Nov. 9, 2026.
To find out more and book tickets, visit the event website here.
