The Peruvian Marine Institute (IMARPE) has conducted an evaluation of the biological and oceanographic conditions in the north-central area of the Peruvian coast, reporting exceptionally weak anchovy supply.
Through remote acoustic and sonar sensing techniques, IMARPE estimated a biomass of approximately 5.12 million tons—27.9% lower than that recorded in the summer of 2026 and 22.8% lower than the average winter-spring period since 1996.
In addition, juvenile specimens represent a significant proportion of the biomass—79% by number and 65% by weight—plus reproductive activity is lower than normal, although spawning episodes indicate that the anchovy is making an effort to reproduce.
“This decision is based on scientific evidence and our responsibility to protect the anchovy,” said Jesús Barrientos, vice minister of fisheries and aquaculture. “The high number of juveniles and current sea conditions require us to act prudently to preserve the resource’s capacity for renewal. We cannot make decisions thinking only about the short term; we must also safeguard fishing opportunities for the coming years,”
‘Super’ El Niño
El Niño is a naturally-occurring pattern, which happens every two to seven years and lasts for around a year.
Trade winds that blow across the Pacific Ocean can weaken or even reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastwards. Heat is then released from the ocean into the atmosphere which can boost global temperatures and drive changes in weather patterns around the world.
El Niño episodes disrupt global fish supply by suppressing the natural upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water, stunting the production of phytoplankton and starving smaller fish. Some fish—such as the Peruvian anchoveta which account for more than half the global supply of fish oil—either relocate or move to deeper waters, significantly depleting catch volumes.
The start of the episode in 2026 was marked by a 0.5°C (0.9°F) rise in average sea surface temperatures in the central and tropic Pacific, in June. It is expected to reach its peak intensity between November and February.
Daily sea surface temperatures in a key region of the central-eastern Pacific were 3.05°C above average on Sept. 19, exceeding the previous record of 3.02°C set during the very strong El Niño of 2015.
So far this year, Peru’s fishing season has progressed slowly due to the high proportion of juvenile fish, leading to extensions of the fishing ban in place since May 27.
Future outlook
Climate scientists are predicting the end of 2026 will see the strongest El Niño episode in up to 1,000 years.
Through IMARPE, PRODUCE will maintain ongoing scientific monitoring of anchovy in the north-central zone, through periodic assessments of its biomass, size structure, spatial distribution, behavior, reproductive activity, and relationship with oceanographic conditions.
“Protecting the anchovy also means protecting jobs, investment, and the entire production chain linked to this strategic resource for the country. That’s why we will continue working with IMARPE to monitor sea conditions and the anchovy population, so that management decisions are based on timely scientific evidence,” Barrientos said.
