Although July 2026 was the warmest month on record, it was by no means a blip. The 10 warmest Julys on record have all occurred since 2016, with the past four years occupying the top four spots, underscoring the clear trajectory of a warming climate.
But the change goes beyond warmer temperatures. While much of Europe saw widespread drought between March and June, many other areas including the United States, Canada, Russia, China and Brazil were wetter than average, with several experiencing severe floods.
Looking ahead, climate change is expected to affect botanical ingredients in four ways: shrinking supply, altering phytochemistry, increasing adulteration risk and forcing the industry to rethink cultivation and sourcing.
Botanicals on the move
A systematic review, authored by Takubessi et al from UCL School of Pharmacy in 2025, collated data from 219 studies covering 367 medicinal plant species and found 40.6% were classified as ‘threatened’, with 59.4% unevaluated.
According to the paper, climate change is projected to increase habitat suitability for 70 species, decrease habitat suitability for 106 species and place 33 species at the risk of extinction and habitat loss.
A further review from UCL researchers Mykhailenko et al, in 2025, assessed several widely commercialized botanicals most impacted by overharvesting and habitat loss as a result of climate change, including Panax quinquefolius (American ginseng), Boswellia sacra (frankincense), Rhodiola rosea (rose root) and Crocus Sativus (saffron).
It noted that American ginseng, which thrives in cool forests in North America, faces increased risks of reduced biomass and increased root rot as temperatures and precipitation patterns change. Root rot is a significant issue for the industry which forces farmers to transplant ginseng to new lands every four to six years.
Meanwhile, rising temperatures are shrinking suitable habitats for high altitude, cold-adapted species such as Rhodiola rosea and arnica, which are increasingly forced to higher elevations. This is known as the “nowhere to go” hypothesis for high altitude plants.
“The case studies underscore the necessity for stricter regulations across all aspects of trade, from initial harvesting to the availability of products for end users,” the UCL authors wrote.
Stefan Gafner, PhD, chief scientific officer at the American Botanical Council (ABC), said while climate change impacts every plant, he highlighted Rhodiola rosea and saw palmetto as examples of plants at an increased vulnerability to climate impacts currently.
“For saw palmetto, the importance of the weather has already been shown in the past, where heavy rains have substantially reduced the yield and the quality of the berries. More frequent, and more severe weather events due to climate change could certainly have a substantial impact on the availability of the plant.”
Plant chemistry changing
In addition to affecting yield, environmental factors impact and alter the bioactive metabolites and marker compounds, potentially reducing the efficacy, safety and consistency of supplement preparations.
Research by Takubessi et al. identified 24 botanical species in which climate change had altered bioactive metabolites, yield or biomass. The authors reported that moderate drought often enhances the accumulation of various secondary metabolites, especially those with antioxidant properties. This is attributed to the induction of mild oxidative stress, which triggers the biosynthesis of protective compounds such as phenolics and flavonoids to scavenge reactive oxygen species (ROS).
However, when drought becomes prolonged and severe, plant metabolic processes are significantly disrupted, particularly in drought-sensitive species such as Bacopa monnieri, Rhodiola rosea and American ginseng.
Elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) can boost the production of carbon-based secondary metabolites like phenolics and flavonoids in botanicals. Likewise, high-altitude and latitude environments generally promote the synthesis of phenolics, flavonoids and anthocyanins, possibly due to increased UV exposure and cooler temperatures. triggering protective pathways.
Extreme heat can trigger defensive physiological shifts in plants, resulting in an accumulation of health-promoting secondary metabolites and bioactive compounds such as flavonoids, phenolic acids and carotenoids.
In ginseng, some heat-responsive mechanisms have been linked to increased ginsenoside synthesis. However, in persistently elevated temperatures, ginseng experiences a suppression of pollen viability, resulting in a 28% reduction in the number of flowers that successfully turn into fruits.
Speaking at the 2025 International Congress and Annual Meeting of the Society for Medicinal Plant and Natural Product Research (GA), Deepak Mundkinajeddu, head of research and development at Indian sustainable manufacturer Natural Remedies Ltd, shared research revealing significantly less withanolides in the ashwagandha root, with around 0.3-0.4% w/w prior to 2018 and just 0.15-0.22% w/w post 2018 as a result of changing farming techniques to cope with climate change, alongside surging demand.
Climate warming can also affect plant parts asymmetricaly; for example, research indicates that valerian root (Valeriana officinalis) and echinacea root (Echinacea purpurea) risk alterations to their precise phytochemical profiles, like valerenic acids or alkylamides, when the synchronization between top-growth energy and root-storage accumulation is disrupted.
Nature out of sync
Beyond direct impacts on plant growth and chemistry, climate change is also disrupting the timing of biological processes throughout ecosystems.
Josef Brinckmann, independent consultant on field and market intelligence for botanical production and trade, said he had a particular interest in ‘phenological mismatch’, referring to the process by which a rapidly changing climate shifts the life cycle events for interacting species at different rates, causing them to fall out of synch.
“In my view, the big story is the increasing body of evidence of phenological mismatch associated with the rapidly changing climate, increasing intensity of climate events, rapid loss of biodiversity and, with it, rapid decline of certain bee and other pollinator populations,” he said.
A 2023 study from the University of Oxford and Chinese Academy of Sciences found that 60% of more than 1,500 herbivorous insect species in Europe are already struggling to keep up place with the plants they rely on. Drawing from 34 years of data, the research showed that climate change is shifting key seasonal timings, or phenology, such as plant blooming or insect emergence, earlier in the year—but not at the same rate.
Given that 84% of the crops in Europe directly depend on insects for pollination, synchrony between key biological activities is critical for maintaining balanced, healthy ecosystems and food production.
The cost of the climate
Dr. Gafner noted that lower yields and poorer quality material will inevitably lead to higher prices for the market. This is particularly clear in the case of saw palmetto, which grows only in the Southeastern United States, an area which has experienced significant heat and drought conditions.
“We have seen climate change lead to price increases for botanicals such as saw palmetto berries, where weather-related effects have a big impact on the yields and supply shortages have led to substantial price increases,” he said.
Beyond harsher growing conditions, heat-related labor reduction is a key concern for saw palmetto, noted Chris Smith, director of tolling & international sales at U.S.-based ingredient manufacturer BioVivo Science.
“Labor issues are the prevailing situation for saw palmetto,” he said. “The berries have a short window of maturity and with fewer laborers available to pick, this is driving prices up in 2026 compared to past years.”
Dr. Gafner warned as the impacts of climate change deepen, manufacturers need to be increasingly vigilant in predicting which ingredients may be at higher risk of quality issues, such as the addition of a bit higher amounts of excipients, the use of lower quality crude plant material, or adulteration.
Fueling adulteration risk
In the face of growing adulteration across botanical supply chains, the ABC partnered American Herbal Pharmacopoeia (AHP) and the National Center for Natural Products Research (NCNPR) in 2011 to create the Botanical Adulterants Prevention Program (BAPP), a coalition of herb quality and identity experts.
A recent NCNPR review revealed the prevalence of adulteration in top-selling botanicals black cohosh rhizome, echinacea root or herb, elderberry, ginkgo leaf and turmeric root/rhizome.
It reported that 818 of 2,995 botanical samples assessed across 78 publications were adulterated or mislabeled, with ginkgo showing the highest rate of adulteration (56.7%).
The findings highlight the importance of robust analytical testing as supply chains become increasingly strained by climate-related disruptions.
BAPP has published Laboratory Guidance Documents that evaluate various analytical methods available in an aim to help industry stakeholders better identify adulterants.
Cultivating climate-proof botanicals
In a recent study published in Frontiers in Pharmacology, Olha Mykhailenko and colleagues emphasized that effective strategies for preserving and increasing plant populations are urgently needed to mitigate the impacts of climate change.
The report noted that one promising solution for species which rely heavily on human intervention for their cultivation, is large-scale vertical farming. Pioneers in this space include Botalys, which partners leading health solutions players and operates a 40,000 square foot vertical farming facility where medicinal plants are grown hydroponically, recreating ideal conditions that mimic plants’ wild biotopes.
Plant cell cultivation has emerged as another promising opportunity for growing plants as single cell organisms inside tanks.
“The main advantage that you have with plant cell is the ability to essentially control what the plant cell does,” Frank Jaksch, CEO of Ayana Bio, said during presenting the company’s plant cell tech during a recent NutraIngredients webinar. “My heart has always been in botanicals, but consistently producing the bioactives or the phytochemicals that are found in botanicals is challenging under even best conditions.”
Other systems harness advanced biotech structures, such as the Interstellar Lab BioPod, first acquired by Robertet in 2023, which is a semi-closed circuit that captures CO2, optimizes the water cycle and uses natural sunlight to reduce land and water use by over 99%.
Cellular engineering and genetic modification have also been used to develop climate resistant species.
In South Korea, several heat-resistant ginseng cultivars and breeding lines have been developed by the Rural Development Administration (RDA), a state-run research agency and the ginseng ingredient producer KGC Ginseng Corporation.
Last year, KGC harvested the first crop of ‘Sunil’, a new heat-resistant ginseng variety to combat the impacts of climate change. ‘Sunil’ features a thick leaf cuticle that reportedly reduces moisture evaporation and significantly lower the incidence of leaf scorch to 3.9%, about 10% less than existing varieties.
The RDA has further developed a harvest house to reduce the impact of heat on the crops by 70% and developed techniques to prevent root rot, including green manure plants, soil sterilization using sun rays and land fumigation.
Forging future-proof supply chains
According to Takubessi et al., safeguarding medicinal plants will require a combination of climate-resilient land management, conservation efforts and stronger policy support.
Their paper emphasized the importance of involving indigenous peoples, local communities and other stakeholders in conservation planning, while strengthening regulations and incentives to curb illegal harvesting.
Recommendations included implementing sustainable farming systems that improve soil health, enhancing resilience to extreme weather and support biodiversity and introducing genetic conservation measures such as germplasm collection, tissue culture and gene banking to preserve valuable plant resources.
For Unibar Corporation, incorporating regenerative agricultural techniques including drip irrigation, soil-moisture management, mulching, rainwater harvesting and efforts to improve soil organic matter is part of the company’s future-proofing strategy.
“Regenerative practices that improve soil health and water-retention capacity also have considerable potential,” he said. “In the longer term, integrating agronomy, precision irrigation, better planting material and climate-smart agricultural practices will be essential for maintaining reliable botanical supply and reducing the carbon footprint.”
He noted that greater variability in bioactive compounds within raw material makes it challenging to achieve consistent extract specifications, highlighting the need to for greater emphasis on raw-material characterization. This challenge can be addressed through raw material testing, supplier qualification, lot segregation, analytical profiling and process standardization.
“The industry will need to move from a largely reactive procurement model towards a more resilient supply-chain model involving geographical diversification, contract farming, strategic inventories, climate-resilient cultivation, improved traceability and stronger collaboration between growers, processors and customers,” Mehta emphasized.
This reinforces the importance of being not just an extractor of botanicals but an integrated partner across the value chain, from cultivation and sourcing through extraction, standardization, analytical characterization and application development.
“This approach will be critical to ensuring reliable, consistent and sustainable botanical ingredients in an increasingly climate-variable environment,” he said.
